By In a high-stakes diplomatic engagement, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has embarked on a two-day visit to China, marking his first official trip to the country in five years. The visit, which coincides with growing tensions over the Dalai Lama’s succession remarks and lingering border sensitivities, is seen as a key test for the future of India-China relations.
Jaishankar is attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Foreign Ministers’ conclave on July 14 and 15, with expectations of a bilateral meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines. The minister’s visit comes after months of calculated efforts from both sides to stabilize ties, following the protracted standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh that began in 2020.
Border Disengagement Paved the Way
Recent diplomatic and military talks between the two neighbours led to the disengagement of troops from the last remaining face-off point in October 2024. This development helped thaw relations, culminating in a flurry of high-level visits, including National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s trip to Beijing for boundary talks in December and again in June for the SCO security summit.
Similarly, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh attended the SCO Defence Ministers’ meet in Qingdao less than three weeks ago. Now, with Jaishankar’s presence in China, the diplomatic momentum continues — albeit under a shadow.
Dalai Lama Factor Looms Large
The timing of Jaishankar’s visit is significant, coming days after the Dalai Lama’s 89th birthday on July 6. The Tibetan spiritual leader’s recent statement that a trust of Tibetan Buddhists will have sole authority to identify his reincarnation has drawn sharp criticism from Beijing, which insists that any reincarnation must be approved by the Chinese government.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) maintained a neutral stance, noting that it “does not comment on matters of faith and religion.” However, the public remarks by Union Minister Kiren Rijiju, who asserted that the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation should be decided solely by the established Buddhist tradition, not any external authority, have added fuel to the fire.
“The Dalai Lama is the most important and defining institution for Buddhists,” Rijiju said, publicly dismissing China’s assertion that it has the final say.
This has irked Chinese officials, with the Chinese embassy in New Delhi warning that such “improper remarks” run counter to India’s official position. Embassy spokesperson Yu Jing posted on social media that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama is a “domestic matter of China,” and warned that foreign interference would not be tolerated.
Analysts suggest that Beijing is likely to bring up the Dalai Lama issue in backchannel conversations during Jaishankar’s trip — even if it is not formally discussed.
Navigating a Fragile Truce
Despite the tension, both sides are under pressure to sustain peace. The China-India economic partnership remains substantial, with bilateral trade crossing $135 billion in 2024. Moreover, the SCO platform, currently chaired by China, provides a multilateral space for dialogue that may ease bilateral friction.
Jaishankar’s potential meeting with Wang Yi is expected to cover a broad range of issues including border management, trade, regional security, and cooperation within the SCO framework. Observers believe that both nations will likely reaffirm their commitment to the ongoing disengagement and discuss confidence-building measures.
However, the inclusion of the Dalai Lama in the diplomatic backdrop could complicate discussions. With China consistently referring to Tibet as “Xizang” and framing the reincarnation debate as a sovereignty issue, any perceived deviation by India from its stated neutrality could trigger a diplomatic backlash.
Strategic Stakes High
India’s engagement with China comes at a time when global geopolitics is increasingly polarized. India’s growing alignment with the West through forums like the Quad, and China’s deepening ties with Russia and Central Asia, have placed the two Asian giants on divergent strategic paths.
Nevertheless, both countries remain founding members of the SCO, and cooperation in this forum is seen as a way to maintain dialogue even amid friction.
Conclusion: Dialogue with Dissonance
Jaishankar’s visit to China is a delicate balancing act. While the SCO platform offers an opportunity for constructive diplomacy, the undercurrents — from unresolved border disputes to the sensitive Dalai Lama issue — continue to challenge trust-building.
Whether the two nations can compartmentalize these tensions and move towards greater stability remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the next 48 hours of Jaishankar’s visit could go a long way in shaping the trajectory of India-China relations in the years ahead.
