By Halfway through the T20 World Cup 2024, the race for the Super Eight spots is heating up with 20 group stage matches remaining. Upsets, surprises, and inclement weather have left four pre-seeded teams – Pakistan, England, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka – in precarious positions, with three of them needing assistance from other teams. Oman is the sole team currently out of contention for a Super 8 spot across all four groups. Here’s the current scenario after the Scotland vs. Oman game on June 9.
Group A
Remaining fixtures:
Pakistan vs Canada
USA vs India
USA vs Ireland
India vs Canada
Pakistan vs Ireland
After each team plays two matches, India and co-hosts USA are in a strong position, needing just one win to qualify for the Super 8, provided Canada drop another point. A three-way tie on six points is possible if India beats USA, USA beats Ireland, and Canada defeats both India and Pakistan. Pakistan’s campaign is on the edge after back-to-back defeats. They can advance only if they beat both Ireland and Canada, and the winner of India vs. USA also wins their last match, while the loser drops their last fixture. In this scenario, Pakistan will be tied on four points with one or more teams, and Net Run Rate (NRR) will determine the qualifier.
Group B
Remaining fixtures:
Australia vs Namibia
England vs Oman
Namibia vs England
Australia vs Scotland
Group B, with three Associate teams, is intriguingly poised with Scotland currently at the top. Australia’s upcoming match against Namibia could secure their passage to the next round and end Namibia’s hopes. Defeat to archrivals Australia has put defending champions England in a precarious position. If England lose another point, even via a washout, they will miss out if Australia gains at least one point from their remaining fixtures against Scotland or Namibia.
The most likely scenario in this group is Scotland losing to Australia and England beating both Namibia and Oman. This would result in both England and Scotland tied on five points each, with NRR deciding the qualifier. As things stand, Scotland’s NRR is +3.965 runs ahead of England’s, a margin of almost 110 runs. If Scotland loses to Australia by 50 runs, England will need their combined victory margin against Namibia and Oman to be 59 runs to surpass them on NRR (presuming teams batting first score 160 each time). Scotland’s final game against Australia gives them an advantage over England in knowing the exact margins going into their final game.
Group C
Remaining fixtures:
West Indies vs New Zealand
Afghanistan vs PNG
New Zealand vs Uganda
New Zealand vs PNG
West Indies vs Afghanistan
Dubbed the group of death, Group C has lived up to expectations, particularly for New Zealand. Afghanistan and co-hosts West Indies are in the best positions, with a win in one of their two remaining matches likely to secure their advancement given their exceptional NRR. New Zealand, having played only one game, have little room for error after a sizable defeat. Their best-case scenario is to win all three remaining matches and hope Afghanistan defeats West Indies, allowing them to advance on points. If New Zealand wins all three matches, West Indies beats Afghanistan, and Afghanistan beats PNG, all three sides will be tied on six points, with NRR deciding the qualifier.
Group D
Remaining fixtures:
South Africa vs Bangladesh
Sri Lanka vs Nepal
Bangladesh vs Netherlands
South Africa vs Nepal
Bangladesh vs Nepal
Sri Lanka vs Netherlands
Group D is the most open group, with all five teams still in contention. A win against Bangladesh will almost certainly secure South Africa’s spot in the Super 8. Sri Lanka is currently in the weakest position and must beat both Netherlands and Nepal, with South Africa going unbeaten and Nepal defeating Bangladesh, to have a chance. In this scenario, Sri Lanka will be tied on four points with the winner of the Netherlands-Bangladesh contest, relying on NRR to advance. Another possible scenario is if South Africa finishes undefeated on eight points, and three other sides are locked on four points each, with either Sri Lanka or Nepal remaining winless.
