By New Delhi, April 21 — The atmosphere between India and Pakistan has turned intensely volatile following a devastating terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, that resulted in the death of 26 civilians. In response, India has signaled a strong and multifaceted retaliation strategy against what it calls “state-sponsored cross-border terrorism” originating from Pakistani soil.
Amid growing anticipation over New Delhi’s next steps, a recently declassified Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) document from 1993 has resurfaced, offering a chilling assessment of what a full-scale military conflict between India and Pakistan might look like. According to the intelligence report, any major war could severely cripple Pakistan’s military capacity — and in a worst-case scenario, destabilize the state itself.
1993 CIA Intelligence: India Holds Strategic Edge
The 1993 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) titled “India-Pakistan: Prospects for War in the 1990s” was declassified after a request by the National Security Archive. The CIA’s analysis noted that while India had no substantial incentive to initiate an armed conflict, Pakistan — already reeling from its defeat in previous engagements — harbored fears that another war could result in total institutional collapse.
The report emphasized India’s clear superiority in conventional military power and cautioned that should another conflict break out, especially following a “spectacular terrorist incident,” it could spiral into an all-out war — one that Islamabad may not be able to withstand.
Nuclear Threat: Pakistan’s Last Line of Defense
In a sobering revelation, the CIA stated that Pakistan viewed its nuclear weapons arsenal as a shield, a final safety measure to deter Indian aggression in the face of an undeniable conventional disadvantage. “Islamabad sees its nuclear capability primarily as a survival mechanism,” the report stated.
However, the agency warned that India’s continued advancements in its armed forces could widen the military gap even further, prompting Pakistan to rely even more heavily on nuclear deterrence. In an extreme situation, the Pakistani leadership might even resort to open nuclear deployment, the report warned, reflecting a level of desperation that could push South Asia into a dangerous zone of instability.
Indian Retaliation: Multi-Faceted Response Post-Pahalgam
In the wake of the Pahalgam massacre, India has announced a five-pronged strategy aimed at diplomatically and economically isolating Pakistan. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) unveiled several measures to hold Islamabad accountable for its continued support of terror networks operating across the Line of Control (LoC).
Here’s a breakdown of the key decisions:
- Diplomatic Downsize:
The number of staff at both the Indian and Pakistani High Commissions will be reduced from 55 to 30 diplomats each, to be completed by May 1. This move is aimed at minimizing the official presence of both sides amid heightened hostilities. - SAARC Visa Exemption Suspended:
India has revoked visa exemptions under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for all Pakistani nationals. Those currently in the country under SVES have been given 48 hours to exit Indian territory. - Indus Waters Treaty Put on Hold:
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, considered one of the longest-standing bilateral agreements between the two nations, has been suspended indefinitely. This action will remain in place until Pakistan convincingly and irreversibly stops its alleged terror support. - Land Border Closure:
The Attari-Wagah land border crossing, the only operational road border between the countries, has been shut with immediate effect. However, individuals who entered India with valid visas are allowed to return through the same point by May 1. - Military Attachés Expelled:
India is withdrawing its Defence, Navy, and Air Force attachés from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad. Additionally, similar Pakistani military representatives stationed in New Delhi will be declared persona non grata and have one week to leave India.
India’s Military Posture: Measured but Firm
The resurfacing of the 1993 CIA report has fueled discussions about India’s military preparedness and options. While the likelihood of a full-scale war remains low, experts agree that India’s current actions reflect a strong diplomatic and strategic recalibration, designed to send a clear signal to Pakistan without immediately resorting to military confrontation.
Despite rising tensions, New Delhi appears to be treading a careful yet assertive path, seeking international backing while tightening its grip on regional security mechanisms.
A Glimpse into the Past, A Warning for the Future
The 1993 CIA assessment stands as a stark reminder of the high-stakes consequences of a military confrontation between two nuclear-armed neighbors. The warning from three decades ago resonates deeply today, as both nations grapple with evolving threats and old grievances.
As India moves to enforce accountability and Islamabad faces increased isolation, the global community watches with concern — hoping that reason, diplomacy, and restraint will prevail over provocation and retaliation.
